Baron International Growth Fund (BIGFX)

Portfolio Management

MichaelKass
Michael Kass

Fund Manager since 2008

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Fund Description

Baron International Growth Fund invests primarily in non-U.S. growth companies.

   

   

Portfolio Commentary

Retail Performance

Review and Outlook (for quarter ended 9/30/2016)

The third quarter of 2016, "post-Brexit" rally suggests there are few signs of political change or contagion strong enough to disrupt the market equilibrium that has remained in place for many years. Indeed, sovereign bond markets initially moved aggressively to discount likely global policy support, a stimulative catalyst, particularly for the emerging markets. While we may question the fundamental underpinnings, such a significant decline in cost of capital is likely to spark an earnings recovery, particularly in the developing world where previous pressures suggest pent up demand. As such, we remain confident that developing world-biased equities can maintain a leadership position for the time being.
 
A key question for global investors over the past year has been whether imbalances and strong credit growth in China will ultimately lead to a credit contraction and/or a marked RMB devaluation. As an important contributor to global demand, we believe stability in China is a key variable in the outlook for global growth and corporate earnings, and are encouraged by recent progress. As of this writing, financial and economic conditions appear to be stable and improving, with economic growth, consumption, and commodity prices holding up well in the face of moderating stimulus measures and increased scrutiny over non-traditional bank lending. We view this as a sign that structural reforms, improved policy coordination and communication, and progress on capital market liberalization, financial reform, and bank non-performing loan recognition, seem to be achieving desired goals. 
 
We remain optimistic, though we are monitoring several key variables. Japan, while struggling with inadequate growth and inflation, seems poised to enter a fiscal expansion largely financed by money printing, which could spark a rise in equities even if partially offset by currency depreciation. While Europe remains challenged by political and financial complexities, credit and earnings growth appear reasonably healthy. The U.K. economy has held up well in spite of Brexit uncertainties. Further, we believe developing world economies, commodities, and equities have reached a favorable inflection point.  In the emerging markets, the cyclical earnings recovery seems to be coalescing with longer-term structural reforms and favorable political evolution in countries such as Brazil and Argentina.  More recently, our enthusiasm is balanced by early signs that we may be passing through an important secular bottom in sovereign bond yields.  Evolving political realities, likely fiscal expansion, signs of rising wage and rent inflation, and comments by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan suggest the central bankers appear to be encouraging inflation expectations to rise. This important shift is occurring after an historic decline in global yields that leaves investor sentiment and positioning vulnerable to “inflation sightings.” We suspect bond market volatility is likely to rise, although it remains a question whether this would be favorable or unfavorable for equities, and we suspect we will have more to report on this at year end.

Top Contributors/Detractors to Performance

Contributors (for quarter ended 9/30/2016)
  • Shares of Eurofins Scientific SE contributed to performance in Q3. Eurofins provides analytical testing services to clients in the food, pharmaceutical, and environmental sectors. The company reported strong financial results for the first half of 2016, including double-digit organic revenue growth and cash flow greater than analyst forecasts. We continue to believe Eurofins has a strong long-term growth outlook, driven by increasing demand for safe, high-quality food; increasing regulation; and more outsourcing of testing by clients.

  • Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Limited, the largest e-commerce company in China, performed well in Q3 following strong quarterly results. Enhanced financial disclosure helped investors to understand better the profitability of the core commerce business and thereby attribute a higher value to it. We expect that mobile monetization will continue to improve through 2016 and beyond as the company invests in new areas such as online grocery and cloud computing.

  • Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. rose in Q3. With over 85% share of the commodity exchange market, the company benefits from growing commodity trading activity in India. The government recently approved options trading on commodity exchanges, which is expected to significantly expand market participation and traded volumes. An increase in trading fees by about 25% was also a key driver of stock performance. We like the company’s recurring revenue model and ability to generate high returns on capital given its dominant position.

Detractors (for quarter ended 9/30/2016)
  • Shares of MonotaRO Co., Ltd. declined during Q3. MonotaRO sells a variety of consumables to business customers in Japan and Korea. While MonotaRO’s business continues to grow in a predictable and profitable manner, the stock can be highly volatile quarter to quarter due to high growth expectations. We believe the company has a substantial opportunity to gain market share in the maintenance, repair, and overhaul distribution business in its core Japanese market, with incremental opportunities in Korea and Indonesia.

  • Shares of semiconductor company Mellanox Technologies Ltd. fell on disappointing Q2 results, including a slowdown in the company’s InfiniBand business and heightened competitive concerns around a new product from Intel Corp. We expect Mellanox to be a share leader at the high end of the InfiniBand business and protect its high margin business model with strong innovation and product leadership. We view Mellanox’s Ethernet business as an open-ended opportunity that is potentially much bigger than its InfiniBand business.

  • Shares of British consumer products company Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc fell in Q3, weighed down by a pending investigation in South Korea where several companies, including Reckitt Benckiser, were named in the sale of harmful humidifier sanitizers there. We believe the price correction may be overdone. The company has already taken a charge for costs associated with the sanitizer, and its Korea business is relatively small. Earnings growth has been solid, as it has been growing revenue while expanding margins through efficiency programs.

Quarterly Attribution Analysis (for quarter ended 9/30/2016)

The Quarterly Attribution Analysis for period ending September 30, 2016 is not yet available

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The prospective performance of the companies discussed herein is based on our internal analysis and reflect our opinions only. We cannot promise future returns and our opinions are a reflection of our best judgement at the time of publication. Our views are not intended as recommendations or investment advice to any person and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and Baron has no obligation to update them. Investing in the stock market is always risky. Current and future portfolio holdings in the Fund are subject to risk.

Source: FactSet PA